The first Earth Day in 1970 was notable not only for launching the modern environmental movement, but for the breadth of what it identified as the root causes of ecological decline. Its organizers called out both per capita consumption and population size as forces requiring action. More than fifty years later, Colcom Foundation argues that the second half of that diagnosis was abandoned and that the consequences have been severe.
At 1970’s U.S. total fertility rate of 2.54, the country’s population growth rate was 1.25 percent annually. That rate, sustained, would have doubled the American population from 205 million to 410 million in just 57 years by 2027. Progress on fertility followed. By 1972, the U.S. total fertility rate had fallen below 2.1, the replacement level threshold, and it has remained below that mark ever since. In theory, that drop should have led to population stabilization.
The Role Immigration Played
It did not, because immigration transformed around 1990 into the primary engine of U.S. population growth. Between 1970 and 2020, the country added approximately 125 million residents. Projections cited by Colcom Foundation indicate that 82 percent of population growth from 2005 to 2050 will stem from immigration, and that the U.S. will add 103 million more people by 2065.
The environmental consequences of that trajectory are not speculative. Total CO2 emissions rose 15 percent between 1970 and 2021 despite a 35 percent decline in per capita emissions. Biocapacity overshoot grew from 227 percent to roughly 240 percent despite meaningful individual-level efficiency improvements. North American bird populations fell by 2.9 billion. Wildlife populations broadly declined by half.
A Call to Act
Colcom Foundation contends that U.S. citizens have both the right and the responsibility to address the country’s total ecological footprint, not just its per capita rate. Stabilizing population size, the foundation argues, is not a fringe concern it is a foundational requirement for achieving lasting environmental sustainability. See related link for more information.
More about Colcom Foundation on https://www.colcomfdn.org/